傅莹:中国的成长与“秩序之争论”

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进入专题: 中国外交  

傅莹  


  全国人大外事委员会主任委员傅莹当地时间19日应邀出席美国芝加哥大学首届美中关系论坛框架下的学生公开论坛并发表演讲。以下为讲话稿全文:


  尊敬的Mr. Steve Edwards先生,
  各位同学和老师,
  女士们、先生们:
  非常荣幸受邀来到芝加哥大学,并在此致辞。如著名建筑家弗兰克·劳埃德·赖特(Frank Lloyd Wright)所言:“我终究认为芝加哥将是世界上留存下来的最美丽、最伟大的城市。”(Eventually I think Chicago will be themost beautiful great city left in the world)。
  但你们是否知晓,在中国,芝加哥的大学更出名。那些希望学费物有所值的家长们尤其对这所大学感兴趣,因为这里“乐趣已死”。(Where fun comes to die.)
  芝加哥大学培养了无数的音乐家、科学家和政治家。你们中一些人如果选择了这样的道路,未来也会成为其中的一员。祝福你们。
  我猜想,这里的学生大都出生在90年代,在中国他们被称为90后。这个时代出生的人有一个共同之处,就是几乎在同一时间获取最新信息。
  对于我们这代人,当我得知世界上有个操作系统叫Windows时,比尔·盖茨先生已经是世界首富了。而现在,太平洋彼岸中国时尚的年轻人与这里一样,对每次新版苹果产品的发布翘首以待。《速度与激情7》(Fast & Furious 7)在北京和芝加哥的电影院差不多同时上映。
  我也许有些理想化,总在想,在海量信息全球同步的今天,年轻一代能否更加宽容、能否更好地相互理解,从而寻求新的途径来构建维系持久和平的全球秩序?
  奥巴马总统于几年前的父亲节在这里发表过一个演讲。他说,作为家长,需要传递给后代最重要的价值是同理心,能换位思考,设身处地去认识世界。(The value of empathy ---the ability tostand in somebody else shoes; to look at the world through their eyes.)
  今天我就想先谈谈中国在世界变迁中的经历。基辛格博士《论世界秩序》一书在中国引起了热烈讨论。书中叙述了威斯特伐利亚体系以来400多年的大国兴衰,强国之间一而再、再而三以战争方式争夺世界权力。
  但是,基辛格博士也谈到,威斯特法利亚体系不具普遍性,在世界其他地区曾有不同的体系,彼此孤立地并存。众所周知,那时还没有网络的存在。
  就中国而言,悠久的历史造就了独特的治理方式、价值观念和文化传统,时至今日仍有影响。因而我们对世界的观念也许建立在不同的基础上。我可以沿着书中世界秩序演变的轨迹,举几个中国历史上的例子:
  你们大概都曾经读到过,1648年欧洲达成威斯特伐利亚系列和约以结束“30年战争”,之后的数百年,初步建立起以主权国家为基础的现代意义上的秩序,确立了内政自治原则。随后便把殖民统治推向世界其他地方,包括美洲,而美国是1783年才摆脱了殖民统治,宣布独立。
  而早在此之前,亚洲长期延续着自己独特方式,各国和睦相处。当时中国的清王朝仍处于鼎盛时期,到18世纪中国人口已超过欧洲国家总和。但是,这个延续近两千年的田园般宁静在19世纪中叶被欧洲帝国打破。
  到了1919年,当欧洲签署凡尔赛和约以结束第一次世界大战之时,亚洲大部分地区已沦为欧洲的殖民地,中国的领主完整也屡遭侵犯。中国最后一个封建皇帝被迫退位,政治精英构建共和体制和西式议会的种种努力纷纷失败,国家陷入内乱。年轻人开始从其他方向寻找解决问题的道路。
  中国共产党就是在这样的背景之下,于1921年由几十个人建立的,许多都是20多岁的年青人。他们不比你们年长多少。(看看年轻人是怎样改变着世界,真是神奇!)
  1941年,当《时代》周刊创办人亨利·卢斯(Henry Luce)宣告“美国世纪”来临之际,中国约2/3的国土被日本军国主义的铁蹄蹂躏,战争中伤亡人员达到3500万人。今年九月,中国将隆重纪念抗日战争胜利70周年,缅怀英烈、牢记历史、珍惜和平。中国和美国当时并肩作战,我们不会忘记那些美国飞行员的英勇事迹。
  1949年中国终于重获和平,建立起中华人民共和国,但是当时的国家满目疮痍,经济近于崩溃,人均寿命不足35岁,文盲率达到90%以上。
  换句话说,二战后多年,当两个超级大国激烈争夺世界权力、建立起所谓的恐怖平衡之际,中国的主要任务是解决生存问题,包括满足庞大人口的吃饭需求。我们也走过不少弯路,年少时经历的饥饿和困惑我记忆犹新。
  二十世纪70年代末,中国与世界的关系翻开了新的一页。新中国恢复联合国合法席位。邓小平领导的改革开放使中国重新融入世界经济。
  因此,当中国人讲到国际体系时,通常指的是中国作为成员参与的、以联合国为核心的国际机构和机制。鉴于惨痛的历史教训,中国一直信守和遵循《联合国宪章》关于主权平等和不干涉别国内政的原则。习近平主席不久前出席万隆会议60周年纪念峰会,重申了和平共处五项原则。
  我讲述这段历史想表达的是,在讨论历史和秩序时,需要注意到各国有着非常不同的经历,这对我们观念的形成有很大影响。这也是为什么,各国在一些问题上的感受不尽相同。
  我想讲的第二点是如何看中国的成长。显然,在中国获得快速发展之时,世界对中国的了解和理解并没有同步增长。一位常年观察中国的欧洲记者朋友如此概括说,西方媒体的中国报道可以归纳为三类:
  一是中国太大——人口多、城市大,现在连奢侈品市场都很大。
  二是中国太坏——好像中国总是在做错事,看不顺眼。
  三是中国太怪——吃奇怪的食物,有奇怪的行为方式。
  我经常接待来自美国国会的代表团,很多人第一次来中国。令他们印象最深的是天天碰见的普通中国人,比如在故宫博物院里摩肩擦踵的农民工游客、和那些梦想成为下一个马云的年轻创客等等。
  实际上,是普通中国人代表了中国的真实面貌和国家的进步。是他们推动着中国走向富强和成功。
  那么,成长起来的中国想有一个什么样的世界秩序呢?未来的前景是否如某些学者预见的,必然是中美争夺世界权力?这是我想讲的第三点。
  我常常阅读美国政治家撰写的回忆录,美国对世界事务的深入和有效参与令人印象深刻。但我也时常感叹于美国对其他国家的事务也如此热情和强势地介入。
  掩卷思量,不禁要问,美国人心目中的世界秩序,是否就是美国治下的世界呢?是否就是仅以美国的价值观和国家利益为核心理念、以美国主导的同盟体系为支撑?而对于新兴大国来说,是否面对的只有臣服或挑战这两个选项?换做是美国人,你们又当作何选择?
  中国就是这样一个新兴的大国,而且并非依靠炮舰开路成长起来的,我们是结合了自身的天然优势与全球化的机遇发展起来的。欧洲引领工业化以来,资金、技术、市场、资源和人才主要集中在以欧美为中心的西方世界,而如今,所有这些要素都在全球化推动下开始向外扩散。
  顺着这个浪潮,中国坚持改革,不断释放巨大的政策红利,实现了30年GDP年均9%的增长,极大地提高了人民的生活水平,并发展成为世界第二大经济体。今日中国是130多个国家的最大贸易伙伴。有人甚至预测,中国经济总量将在2020年后达到世界第一位。
  但是,当一些国际学者讨论新的世界权力分配问题时,他们会惊讶地发现大多数中国人很淡定,对传统意义上的所谓世界权力转移或者“世界权力之争”没有表现出太大的兴趣。
  对中国人而言,我经常看到的是在标准上存在不一致的问题。例如,在西方国家,当有人滥杀无辜时,他们被视为恐怖分子;而这样的事情发生在中国就被看作是民族或者是政治问题。当中国的邻国在领土问题上做出挑衅的姿态时,美国不置一词;而当中国捍卫自身权益时,就常被说成是咄咄逼人或者胁迫别国。
  如果对最基本的原则前提都没有共同的基础,我们何以在世界秩序演进这样的问题上进行有意义的讨论呢?就像广东人形容人与人无法沟通时讲的:是“鸡同鸭讲”。
  中国目前的重心还在于解决大量棘手的国内难题,包括克服环境污染、反腐败、缓解经济下行、更好地保障民生等等。
  同时,在应该构建什么样的未来世界秩序上,中国学者也进行着务实的讨论。大家可能各持观点,但一个共识是:世界已经发生变化,许多旧的概念失去了意义。
  首先,在当今世界,不同的秩序像过去那样,在各地区隔绝地共同存在、应对不同的问题,这种可能性已经没有了。今天的秩序需要具有开放性,要逐步调整以适应新的现实和多元的观点。
  其二,再通过大国之间战争的方式实现“权力转移”,重新决定新的力量平衡,也没有可能了,因为世界各国关系已经如此紧密交织。
  其三,我们所面对的大量新型问题都是全球性的,超越了主权国家和区域的边界。像埃博拉病毒、ISIS、像试图乘船从非洲前往欧洲的人们。需要新的思维和新型全球框架或者说是全球秩序,去应对新型挑战。
  令人有所宽慰的是,进入21世纪,人类社会已经开始进行许多有意义的实践,用创新和合作的办法应对和解决新的问题,例如G20和全球气候变化大会。中国也倡导了“一带一路”和亚投行,来增强亚洲和亚欧大陆之间的互联联通。这些实践是对现有国际体系和合作框架的补充,将促进现有国际体系朝着更加公正合理和更具包容性的方向发展。
  基辛格《论世界秩序》一书是以一种很有深意的设问方式结束的:“我们将去向何方?”显然,历史又来到了新的转折路口,关键是将向哪里转变。
  这个问题也适用于中美两国,我们是否有决心和智慧走出大国冲突的历史窠臼?能否合作开创新型大国关系和新型秩序?为此,习近平主席向奥巴马总统提出建立中美新型大国关系。
  中美两国之间尽管受到误解和偏见的干扰,实际上在许多领域都建立起密切的伙伴关系。有人甚至把两国比作不情愿的双胞胎。两国互信的水平也相当令人印象深刻了。否则,我们何以相互颁发十年有效期签证?由此可见,年青一代继承的两国关系积极因素大大多于负面因素。
  建立新型大国关系前无古人,不会一帆风顺。但双方都认识到,要加强合作、管控分歧,为亚洲和世界构建面向和平与发展的稳定战略框架。这既是两国关系的方向,又是我们共同的责任。
  所以,最后我想说的是,虽然21世纪全球秩序的演进并不容易,也不是朝夕可得之事。但未来寄望于年轻一代,我相信,你们一定会拿出很好的答案!谢谢大家!
  翻页为英文版全文
  Thank you, Alan and Mr. Steve Edwards,
  Members of the Faculty and Students,
  Ladie sand Gentlemen,
  It is a great honor for me to address you today. As the renowned architect Frank (Lloyd)Wright said, “Eventually I think Chicago will be the most beautiful great cityleft in the world.”
  But I wonder if you know that, in China, Chicago is more famous for its University.
  This university is especially attractive to the parents who want to get their money’s worth, as this is known as a place “where fun has come to die”.
  A great many musicians, scientists and politicians were nurtured here. And I am sure some of you will one day join them if you so choose. You have my best wishes.
  I guess, most of the students here were born after 1990. In China, we call people like you“90hou”, meaning the post-90 generation.
  You share one thing in common, that is, you are in synchronization with latest development of the world.
  For my generation, by the time I first heard of an operating system called Windows,Mr. Bill Gates was already the richest man on earth. Now trendy Chinese wait on tenterhooks for every iPhone launch just like here. “Fast & Furious 7” is released in Beijing cinemas at about the same time as in Chicago.
  I hope I am not too idealistic in thinking that since so much information is shared among young people all over the world, shouldn’t the younger generation be more open and more ready to understand each other?
  Isn’t it possible to find a new way to build a global order capable of ensuring lasting peace?
  When your President Obama spoke here on a father’s day a few years ago, he said, the most important thing for the parents is to pass along the value of empathy ---the ability to stand in somebody else’s shoes; to look at the world through their eyes.
  In that regard, the first point of my speech today is about China’s experience with the evolving world order.
  Dr.Kissinger’s latest book World Order set off lots of discussion in China. It is absorbing to read the 400 years of rise and fall of powers since the Westphalia peace conference, and the wars and conflicts that led to power shifting.
  However, as the book also pointed out, the Westphalian system was, as not universal, but one of the many systems that coexisted and yet in isolation from each other given the circumstances. Obviously, they didn’t have the internet.
  While in China, where history had been carrying on for a long time, a different system of governance, values and traditions were nurtured, which have an influence to the present day.
  So our view of history may have a different base. Let me pick up a few moments of history along the evolution of world order laid down in that book.
  As you probably remember in your reading that, it was in 1648, Europe finalized the Westphalia Treaty to end the Thirty Years’ War and established a modern sense of order among nation states, recognizing their sovereignty and self-determination of internal affairs. Then it spread its colonial power to many corners of the world, including America and the United States freed itself and declared independence in 1776.
  In this period in Asia, the long and generally peaceful relationship had continued. China’s Qing Dynasty was in its prime and the population in the 18th century was more than the European countries put together. But this serenity for almost2,000 years was broken when the European imperialists arrived in the middle of19th century.
  By the time the Versailles Treaty was signed in 1919 at the end of the First World War, most part of Asia was colonized and China’s territorial integrity too had been violated.
  By then, the last emperor of China had abdicated. The attempt by political elites to installa republic and western style parliamentary system had failed once and again in one way or another. The country was descending into chaos and conflicts. The young generation looked in other directions for a solution.
  It was in this context that the Communist Party of China was set up in 1921 by a dozen or so young people mostly in their late 20s, not much older than you. (It’s amazing how young people change the world.)
  Fast forward to 1941, when Henry Luce of Time Magazine stated the arrival of the American Century, two thirds of China’s territory fell under Japanese occupation. 35million people died or wounded in war.
  China will host a major commemoration September this year to mark the 70th anniversary of the victory of the War against Japanese Aggression. We will remember the heroes, reflect on history and the value of peace. China and the U.S. fought on the same side, and we will never forget the heroic American pilots who helped China during the war.
  When peace did come in 1949 and the PRC was founded, the economy was on the brink, average life expectancy was under 35 years and more than 90 percent of the population was illiterate.
  In other words, for many years following the end of the Second World War, when the two super powers contested for world power, achieving a sort of balance of terror, China’s main concern was its very survival, not least feeding its big population. There were many setbacks along the way in China. I still have a keen memory of the hunger and confusion of my younger days.
  In the late1970s China’s relationship with the world turned a new page. The Mainland regained China’s legal seat at the UN. The policy of reform and opening to the outside world led by Deng Xiaoping enabled China to reconnect with the world economy.
  So when the Chinese talk about the international system, we are referring to the institutions with the UN at the center, and to which China has committed ever since. Learn from its painful history, China believes in the principles of equality among all sovereign nations and non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries as enshrined in the UN Charter.
  Chinese President Xi Jinping, when attending the event marking the 60th anniversary of the Bandung Conference, reiterated the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence.
  The reason took you on this brief journey is to illustrate that when discussing world order, we should be mindful of different experiences of history and their impact on our perspectives. And we may not have the same feeling for certain things.
  Here comes my second point. How to look at China today? Now China has very much grown. But, I have to say, knowledge and understanding of China in the outside world, especially in Western countries, hasn’t quite kept up.
  A friend of mine, European journalist and a keen observer of China, summed up western media reporting on China into three categories. China is either
  incredibly big –biggest population, biggest cities, even big demand for luxury goods.
  or China is so bad – doing all the wrong things and not fitting into the norms.
  and China is so weird – eating weird stuff and having weird ways of doing things.
  I receive many members of the US Congress often making their first visits to China. What strikes them the most is their encounters with ordinary Chinese, such as the migrant workers they bump into while visiting the Palace Museum, or young makers whose ambition is to be the next Jack Ma of Alibaba.
  The ordinary people represent the true face of China and they are the real driving force forChina to grow strong and successful.
  So my third point is, what kind of future world order does China want to be part of? Is the future destined to be a confrontation between China and the US for world power as some suggest?
  I often read memoirs by American politicians and I am always fascinated about how the US is deeply and effectively involved in the world affairs. Not only so, it’s equally enthusiastic about the internal affairs of other countries.
  One cannot help but wonder: is the prevalent understanding of world order amongst Americans a world dominated by US rules and power? Is it only centered on American values and interests and supported by US alliances? Does that meant hat from the US perspective, rising powers only have two choices: to submit or to challenge? What would you do if you were in this (our) situation?
  China is one such rising power. It has grown largely by marrying its natural advantages to the opportunities offered by globalization rather than “flag before trade”. Capital, markets, resources and talents that had accumulated in western countries since industrialization, now have spread outward due to globalization.
  Riding on this tide, China has made continued policy reforms and achieved 9% of growth for 30 years, allowing great improvement of people’s living standard, and growing into the world’s second biggest economy. It is now the first trading partner to130 countries. It is even predicted that, China’s economy will be the world’s biggest by 2020.
  And yet, international academics found, to their disbelieve that, most Chinese are disinterested inthe debate about a new shifting of world power or power competition in the traditional sense.
  For us in China, we see inconsistencies at play. For example, if someone or some group skill innocent people in western countries, they are terrorists. Yet if the same thing happens in China, it’s often viewed as ethnic or political issues by foreign observers. When China’s neighbors act provocatively on territorial issues, the US turns its head away. Yet when China defends its interests, it is described as either assertive or a bully.
  If we cannot even agree on the most basic premises, how can we have a meaningful debate on the evolution of world order? In Guangdong, when people are talking past each other, they are described as having a “dialogue between chicken and duck”.
  China’s focus remains the many domestic challenges, such as environmental pollution, fighting corruption, countering the economic slow-down, improving the livelihood of the people.
  On the question of what future world order should look like, the discussions in China are more pragmatic. Though views still differ, one thing people all agree on is that the world has changed. Many old concepts have lost relevance.
  First, in today’s world, it is no longer possible to have different world orders coexist independently of each other and addressing separate issues, like in the earlier centuries. The orders of today need to open up and make adjustments to adapt to the new realities and to different perspectives.
  Secondly, it’s no longer viable to try to achieve the transfer of power and find a new equilibrium through means of war among major powers because of the interconnected nature of today’s world.
  Thirdly, what we are facing are the new kinds of global issues, which do not respect traditional order or sovereign borders. Look at Ebola. Look at ISIS. Look at the boat people trying to cross from Africa to Europe.
  Therefore, there need to be new thinking to build a new global framework or,we may use the term global order,to cope with new type of challenges.
  The good news is that, as we enter the 21st century, mankind is already experimenting in an innovative and collaborative manner to tackle the challenges, such as G20, and the conference on climate change.
  For its part, China has initiated the land and maritime Silk Road programs to strengthen Asian and Eurasian connectivity, and is setting up the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to support them.
  All these practices are complementary to the existing international system and will help with its gradual evolution into a fairer and more inclusive structure.
  Dr. Kissinger tellingly ended his book with a question mark: “where do we go from here”? Obviously, history has come to a turning point. The question is in which direction it will turn.
  This question is also for China and the US. Do we have the resolve and wisdom to avoid the old loop and can we build a new type of relationship and global order through cooperation instead of confrontation?
  That is why Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed to President Obama to build what he called China-US new model of major country relationship.
  Actually, in spite of the misunderstandings and stereo types, China and the US, have already made close partnership in many fields. We are even called reluctant twins. And the trust level is impressive too. Otherwise how can we give each other 10-yearvisas? So what the young generation is inheriting in our relationship has more positive elements than negativity.
  To build anew model of relationship is an unprecedented endeavor for the two countries. We both understand the importance of strengthening cooperation, managing differences and creating a stable strategic framework for peace and development of Asia and even the world. This is the direction for our relations and is also our shared responsibilities.
  So to end my speech, I want to say that evolving a global order for the 21st century is not going to be easy, and the answer takes time. The world will count on the young generation, and I am sure you will come up with good answers. Thank you.
  来源:盘古智库

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