陈翔:内战为何演化成代理人战争

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进入专题: 内战     代理人战争     自主性     干预意愿     安哥拉内战  

陈翔  
" Journal of Conflict Resolution,Vol.55,No.6,2011,pp.847-876.

   (20)Geraint Alun Hughes,"Syria and the Perils of Proxy Warfare," Small Wars & Insurgencies,Vol.25,No.3,2014,pp.522-530.

   (21)李志永:《内外联动与自主性外交理论的探索》,载《世界经济与政治》,2016年第8期,第56—79页。

   (22)孙超:《分离冲突的起源:基于国内外联动的视角——乌克兰与摩尔多瓦的配对比较》,载《欧洲研究》,2016年第6期,第14—36页。

   (23)陈翔:《冷战时期代理人战争为何频发》,载《国际政治科学》,2017年第4期,第124—155页。

   (24)Gerard Prunier,"Rebel Movements and Proxy Warfare:Uganda,Sudan and Congo(1986-99)," African Affairs,Vol.103,No.412,2004,pp.359-383.

   (25)Bertil Dunér,"Proxy Intervention in Civil Wars," Journal of Peace Research,Vol.18,No.4,1981,pp.353-361.

   (26)David Carment and Patrick James,"Explaining Third-Party Intervention in Ethnic Conflict:Theory and Evidence," Nations and Nationalism,Vol.6,No.2,2000,pp.173-202; Mehmet Gurses,"Transnational Ethnic Kin and Civil War Outcome," Political Research Quarterly,Vol.68,No.1,2015,p.143.

   (27)参见Patrick M.Regan,Civil Wars and Foreign Powers:Outside Intervention in Intrastate Conflict,Ann Arbor:University of Michigan Press,2000。

   (28)Kristian S.Gleditsch,"Transnational Dimensions of Civil War," Journal of Peace Research,Vol.44,No.3,2007,pp.293-309.

   (29)David Singer and Melvin Small,The Wages of War,1816-1965:A Statistical Handbook,New York:John Wiley & Sons,1972,p.45.

   (30)Melvin Small and David Singer,Resort to Arms:International and Civil War,1816-1980,Beverly Hills:Sage,1982,p.210.

   (31)Melvin Small and David Singer,Resort to Arms:International and Civil War,1816-1980,p.213.

   (32)Karl W.Deutsch,"External Involvement in International Wars," in Harry Eckstein,ed.,Internal War:Problems and Approaches,New York:Free Press of Glencoe,1964,p.102.

   (33)Geraint Hughes,My Enemy's Enemy:Proxy Warfare in International Politics,Eastbourne:Sussex Academic Press,2012,p.11.

   (34)关于这些具体类型代理人战争的界定,可以参见马荣升:《代理人战争探析》,载《中国军事科学》,2017年第1期,第150—151页。

   (35)Frederic S.Pearson,"Foreign Military Interventions and Domestic Disputes," International Studies Quarterly,Vol.18,No.3,1974,p.259.

   (36)Yaacov Bar-Siman-Tov,"The Strategy of War by Proxy," p.270.

   (37)Yaacov Bar-Siman-Tov,"The Strategy of War by Proxy," p.269.

   (38)Raimo Vayrnen,ed.,The Waning of Major War:Theories and Debate,London:Routledge,2005,p.144.

   (39)戈登·克雷格、亚历山大·乔治著,时殷弘等译:《武力与治国方略——我们时代的外交问题》,北京:商务印书馆2004年版,第308页。

   (40)Charles Tilly,Coercion,Capital and European States,AD 990-1990,Cambridge:Blackwell,1990,p.158.

   (41)在核武器时代,核大国可能会因发动代理人的战争而开展竞争,战争的直接对抗只是发生在双方代理人之间或大国与代理人之间。参见赵远良:《论核时代大国关系的洛克政府结构》,载《太平洋学报》,2012年第9期,第25页。同时,需要指出的是代理人战争这种国际政治现象出现的时间已经很久,核武器的发明只是加剧了这种趋势。参见Philip Towle,"The Strategy of War by Proxy," RUSI Journal,Vol.126,No.1,1981,p.21。

   (42)Philip Towel,"The Strategy of War by Proxy," pp.24-25.

   (43)杰弗里·布莱内著,时殷弘译:《战争的原因》,北京:商务印书馆2011年版,第242页。

   (44)Richard Smoke,National Security and the Nuclear Dilemma,New York:Random House,1987,p.126.

   (45)Meredith Reid Sarkees,"Intra-State War Data Codebook," http://cow.dss.ucdavis.edu/data-sets/COWwar,访问时间:2017年9月30日。

   (46)刘笑阳:《国家间共同利益:概念与机理》,载《世界经济与政治》,2017年第6期,第113页。

   (47)宋伟、宋卓如:《联盟的维持与瓦解:理论分析与案例检验》,载《世界经济与政治》,2014年第12期,第137页。

   (48)Bertil Duner,"Proxy Intervention in Civil Wars," p.356.

   (49)Roy Licklider,ed.,Stopping the Killing:How Civil Wars End,New York:New York University Press,1993,pp.269-291.

   (50)参见John von Neumann,Theory of Games and Economic Behavior,Princeton:Princeton University Press,2007。

   (51)Sang Ki Kim,"Third-Party Intervention in Civil Wars and the Prospects for Postwar Development," Journal of Conflict Resolution,Vol.61,No.3,2017,p.617.

   (52)曾向红、楼千舟:《从社会运动到内战的演变机制——基于中东变局的考察》,载《国际安全研究》,2014年第3期,第56页。

   (53)Jocob D.Kathman,"Civil War Contagion and Neighboring Interventions," International Studies Quarterly,Vol.54,No.4,2010,p.989.

   (54)Aysegul Aydin and Patrick Regan,"Networks of Third-Party Interveners and Civil War Duration," European Journal of International Relations,Vol.18,No.3,2011,p.574.

   (55)Thomas J.Bellows,"Proxy War in Indochina," Asian Affairs,Vol.7,No.1,1979,p.28.

   (56)在国际政治中关于分化、削弱、破坏针对自己的对手联盟的研究,可参见刘丰:《分化对手联盟:战略、机制与案例》,载《世界经济与政治》,2014年第1期,第48—65页;刘城晨、翟新:《战略调适与联盟瓦解:分化联盟的实践路径》,载《世界经济与政治》,2016年第4期,第53—79页。

   (57)Dylan Balch-Lindsay,Andrew J.Enterline and Kyle A.Joyce,"Third-Party Intervention and the Civil War Process," p.350.

   (58)Patrick M.Reagan,"Choosing to Intervene:Outside Intervention in Internal Conflicts," The Journal of Politics,Vol.60,No.3,1998,p.756.

(59)Mark Lagon,"The International System and the Reagan Doctrine:Can Realism Explain Aid to ‘Freedom Fighters’?" British Journal of Political Science,Vol.22,No.(点击此处阅读下一页)

    进入专题: 内战     代理人战争     自主性     干预意愿     安哥拉内战  

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