于滨:中俄与“自由国际秩序”之兴衰

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参见John Mearsheimer, The GreatDelusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities, New Heaven: Yale UniversityPress, 2018.

   [13]Allison, Destinedfor War.

   [14]David Kang andXinru Ma, “Power Transitions:Thucydides Didn’t Live in East Asia”, Washington Quarterly, Vol.41, No.1, Spring 2018, pp.137-154.

   [15]David Kang, EastAsia before the West: Five Centuries of Trade and Tribute, New York: Columbia University Press, 2012.

   [16]A.F.K Organskiand Jacek Kugler, The War Ledger, Chicago:University of Chicago Press, 1980.

   [17]Steve Chan,Weixing Hu and Kai He, “Discerning States’ Revisionist and Status-quoOrientations: Comparing China and theUS”, European Journal ofInternational Relations, October 2018, pp.1-28.

   [18]JamesGoldgeier, “The Misunderstood Roots of International Order-And Why They MatterAgain”, The Washington Quarterly, Vol.41, No.3, Fall 2018, pp.7-11; 关于两次世界大战之间国际体系崩溃、并最终导致第二次世界大战爆发的相关研究,可参见E.H. Carr, The Twenty Years Crisis,1919-1939, New York:Harper Perennial, 1964; 英国历史学家霍布斯鲍姆认为,20世纪上半叶是“极端年代”中最为暴力的阶段。他的观点参见Eric J. Hobsbawm, The Age ofExtremes: The Short Twentieth Century, 1914-1991, London: Michael Joseph, 1994.

   [19]Ikenberry,“The end of liberal international order?”; Samuel Huntington, “Democracy’sThird Wave”, Journal of Democracy, Vol.2, No.2, Spring 1991, pp.12-34.

   [20]MichaelMazarr, Miranda Priebe, Andrew Radin and Astrid Stuth Cevallos, “Understandingthe Current International Order”, Rand, 2016. 在伊肯伯里(John Ikenberry)看来,美国主导的全球秩序始建于第二次世界大战结束,那时华盛顿“已经在持续努力建立一个包括联盟、贸易协议和政治伙伴关系在内的广泛的多边机制体系”。参见:Ikenberry, “The Illusion ofGeopolitics”.

   [21]约瑟夫·奈认为,所谓的自由国际秩序在冷战时期是不完整的,当时它只包括“一群大西洋沿岸的志同道合的国家”,而没有苏联集团国家和其他大国,例如中国和印度。参见Nye, “Will the Liberal Order Survive?”还可参见Rebecca Friedman, Lissner and Mira Rapp-Hooper,“The Day after Trump: American Strategy for a New International Order, WashingtonQuarterly, Vol.41, No.1, Spring 2018, pp.8-10.

   [22]笔者在为2018年4月26日在上海华东师范大学俄罗斯研究中心举办的“中俄关系及其对全球秩序的影响”研讨会提交的会议论文中首次提出该观点,随后帕特里克·波特(Patrick Porter)也提出了类似看法,相关看法参见Patrick Porter, “A World Imagined”, Cato Institute, July 5, 2018; Allison,“The Myth of the Liberal Order”, in the July/August 2018 issue of ForeignAffairs, and John Mearsheimer, “The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams andInternational Realities”, The National Interest, October 5, 2018, https://nationalinterest.org/ feature/great-delusion-liberal-dreams-and-international-realities-32737

   [23]John Lewis Gaddis, “The Long Peace”, InternationalSecurity, Spring, 1986.

   [24]Gaddis, “The Long Peace”, p.131.

   [25] John F. Kennedy, “American University Commencement Address”, 10June 1963, Washington, D.C., https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/jfkamericanuniversityaddress. html

   [26]Ted Sorensen, Counselor:A Life at the Edge of History, New  York: Harper-Collins Publishers, 2008, sections 23and 24.

   [27]杰弗里·萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs)指出,“有学者认为右翼分子对于肯尼迪的和平倡议极为不满,以至于暗杀了肯尼迪,这种观点是真实可信的。”参见Sachs, “Donald Trump’s dangerous Chinaillusions”, Boston Globe, February 5, 2017, https://www.bostonglobe.com/ opinion/2017/02/05/trump-dangerous-china-illusions/51H7yrI9vTE3PSmXDJDl3M/story.html

   [28]Allison, “TheMyth of the Liberal Order”.

   [29] Ibid.

   [30]Yu Bin, “Americaswar against racism”, AsiaTimes online, June 26, 2003, http://www. atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/EF26Aa01.html.在笔者《亚洲时报》(Asia Times)上的文章发表两个月后(2003年8月28日),美国广播公司(NBC)主播彼得·詹宁斯(Peter Jennings)为马丁·路德·金的“我有一个梦想”演讲40周年制作了一期特别节目,也得出相同结论,即冷战迫使美国政治精英直面美国国内的种族隔离政策,参见https://www. youtube.com/watch?v=S2pfiTInjLE

   [31]Yu Bin, “Americaswar against racism.”

   [32] “Withoutthe Cold War, what’s the point of being an American”, cited in Samuel Huntington, “The Erosion ofAmerican National Interests”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.76, No.5,September/October 1997, pp.28-49.

   [33]Stephen Brooksand William Wohlforth, “American Primacy in Perspective”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.81, No. 4, July/August 2002,pp.20-33; Keir Lieber and Daryl Press, “The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy”, ForeignAffairs, Vol.85, No.2,March/April 2006, pp.42-54.

   [34]Yu Bin, “Americaswar against racism.”

   [35]Jon Swaine,Oliver Laughland, Jamiles Lartey and Ciara McCarthy, “Young black men killed byUS policy at highest rate in year of 1,134 deaths”, The Guardian,December 31, 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/dec/31/the-counted-police-killings-2015-young-black-men

   [36]JeffreyMankoff, “American Ideals Beat theUSSR. Why Aren’t We Using ThemAgainstRussia?”, Defense One, January 4, 2018, https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2018/01/american-ideals-beat-ussr-why-arent-we-using- them-against-russia/144954/

   [37]转引自Godfrey Hodgson, The Myth of American Exceptionalism, New Heaven: Yale UniversityPress, 2009.

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