于滨:中俄与“自由国际秩序”之兴衰

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   [95] Iliya Pitalev, “Russia Sends Very Careful Message to Trump byTargeting Obama-Era Sanctions”, Sputnik, 29 July 2017, https://sputniknews.com/russia/201707291055987722-russia-us- sanctions-obama-trump/

   [96] The Economist interviewsBarack Obama: “The president on dealing withRussia,” August 2, 2014,http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2014/08/economist-interviews -barack-obama-2

   [97] Frederick Kempe, “Bush Can Take Another Look Into Putin’s ‘Soul’,Soviets tried”, June 6, 2007,http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aWrjoiCIMmL8; BenSmith, “Hillary: Putin doesn’t have a soul”, Politico, January 6, 2008, http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0108/Hillary_Putin_doesnt_have_a_ soul.html

   [98]时任美国驻俄罗斯大使杰克·马特洛克(Jack Matlock)也对北约东扩持批评态度,“在我们达成一项将俄罗斯纳入欧洲防务结构的协议之前,我们没有理由将北约军事组织向东扩展”。他指责说,北约集团的东扩并不是由华盛顿推动的,而是由东欧国家所推动的,他们渴望得到西方的保护,使其免受俄罗斯可能复兴的共产主义的威胁。主观上北约扩大并不是要触动俄罗斯的利益,但客观上确实起到了这样的效果,特别是它所提供的安全架构中并不包括俄罗斯。“The Expendables: How NATO conquered Europe”,RT, April 5, 2014, http://rt.com/news/nato-anniversary-expansion-europe-129/

   [99] John Mearsheimer, “Why theUkraineCrisis Is the West’s Fault”.

   [100] Michael McFaul, “Russiaas It Is: A Grand Strategy for Confronting Putin”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.97, No.4, July/August 2018, pp.82-91.

   [101]http://www.amazon.com/review/R1NVWWAA1FVQRP/ref=cm_cr_dp_title?ie=UTF8&ASIN=5010004941&channel=detail-glance&nodeID=283155&store=books

   [102] Andrei Tsygankov, RussianForeign Policy: Change and Continuity in National Identity, Lanham, Maryland:Rowman and Littlefield, 3rd ed., 2013, Ch.3.

   [103] Vladislav Surkov (Владислав Сурков), “The Loneliness of theHalf-Breed [Одиночество полукровки (14+)]”,Russiain Global Affairs (Россия в ГлобалбнойПолитике), May 28, 2018,http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/book/The-Loneliness-of-the-Half-Breed-19575, https://www. globalaffairs.ru/global-processes/Odinochestvo-polukrovki-14-19477

   [104]休克疗法在波兰和捷克等东欧小国取得了更好的效果。

   [105] Thomas Remington, “Politics inRussia”,in Gabriel Almond et al (eds), ComparativePolitics Today: A World View, updated 8th edition, London: Pearson, 2006, p.401.

   [106] Stent, Limits of Partnership,p.12.

   [107] LaFeber,America,Russia, p.357.

   [108]根据戈尔巴乔夫的说法,美方承诺北约不会扩大,但这一承诺从未见诸于文字。从那以后,北约进行了4次东扩,1999年捷克、匈牙利和波兰加入;2004年保加利亚、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、罗马尼亚、斯洛伐克和斯洛文尼亚加入;2009年阿尔巴尼亚和克罗地亚加入。本轮东扩将吸收波黑、格鲁吉亚、马其顿和乌克兰加入。经过东扩之后,北约的规模几乎扩大了一倍,从1990年的16个成员国增加到28个成员国,还有更多的国家在等待加入。参见“TheExpendables: How NATO conquered Europe”, RT, April 5, 2014,http://rt.com/news/nato-anniversary-expansion-europe-129/,近期关于西方在这个问题上是否有过承诺的研究可参见JoshuaShifrinson, “Deal or No Deal? The End of the Cold War and the U.S. Offer toLimit NATO Expansion”, InternationalSecurity, Vol.40, Spring 2016, pp.7-44.

   [109] Henry Kissinger, “How the Ukraine crisis ends”, The Washington Post, March 5, 2014,http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-to-settle-the-ukraine-crisis-start-at-the-end/2014/03/05/46dad868-a496-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html

   [110] Henry Kissinger, DoesAmerican Need a Foreign Policy: Toward a Diplomacy for the 21st Century, New York: Touchstone,2001, pp.27, 30.

   [111]转引自LaFeber, America, Russia, p.370.

   [112] “Joint news conference with King Abdullah II ofJordan”, April 5, 2017, www. realclearpolitics.com/video/2017/04/05/trump_the_world_is_a_mess_i_inherited_it_and_i_will_fix_it.html

   [113] George H. W. Bush, “Address Before a Joint Session of the Congresson the Persian Gulf Crisis and the Federal Budget Deficit”, September 11, 1990,Bush Presidential Library and Museum, http://bushlibrary.tamu.edu/research/public_papers.php?id=2217&year=1990&month=9

   [114] Brooks and Wohlforth, “American Primacy”.

   [115]在“终结论”提出之前,美国学者已经开始讨论关于美国/西方对于国际体系支配地位下降的问题。例如Fareed Zakaria, The Post-AmericanWorld, New York: W.W.Norton & Company, Inc., 2008; Richard Haass, Foreign Policy Begins atHome: The Case for PuttingAmericasHouse in Order, New York: Basic Books,2013; Joseph Nye, Jr., Isthe American Century Over? Cambridge,UK: Polity,2015.

   [116]Jeffrey C.Isaac, “The Politics of Global Disorder”, Perspectives on Politics, Vol.14, No.1, March 2016.

   [117]金灿荣:“未来10年的世界大变局”,观察者网,2017年8月1日,http://www.guancha.cn/JinCanRong/ 2017_08_01_420867_s.shtml

   [118] Ikenberry, “The End of LiberalInternational Order?”.

   [119] Ferguson and Zakaria, The Future of Geopolitics.

[120]直到十年前,西方政策与学术界的焦点都是如何对非西方国家进行治理的问题。参见Arnaud Blin and Gustavo Marin, “Rethinking Global Governance, 2007”, Forum for a New World Governance,Paris; “Global governance 2025: At a critical juncture”, US NationalIntelligence Council and the EU Institute for Security Studies, December2010,  http:// www.(点击此处阅读下一页)

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