王伟:国际秩序转型与族群冲突研究

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进入专题: 族群冲突   国际秩序  

王伟  
收集和整理了关于族群冲突的数据,以在族群冲突中的牺牲人数为变量,对1946-2015年间的族群冲突进行了趋势分析。分析发现,族群冲突的死亡人数与苏联和美国的实力变化存在一定的趋势匹配。换言之,当美苏之间实力变化不大、竞争缓和时,族群冲突的死亡人数也相对减少;但两国之间实力起伏较大,竞争加剧时,族群冲突便有增长趋势,特别是苏联解体后,权力由苏联转向美国时的那几年,族群冲突异常激烈。此外,文章还利用伊拉克境内库尔德人的族群运动来阐述了苏联和美国间的大国竞争对于库尔德族群运动的影响。

   历史上国际秩序的转型总是与大国间的战争相伴,国际社会权力的转移似乎难逃“修昔底德陷阱”的影响。不过随着毁灭性核武器产生的核恐怖平衡、世界相互依赖程度的日益深化和科技制胜理念的盛行,大国间的直接战争似不可能。正如文中所述,大国会在其他弱国家寻求斗争场域。而与以前不同的是:大国寻求弱小国家作为代理人的战争将会减少,即国家间的战争会减少,寻求碎片化多族群国家中的族群作为其代理人的可能性会更大。

   作者感谢《国际安全研究》匿名评审专家的意见和建议,文责自负。

   注释:

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    进入专题: 族群冲突   国际秩序  

本文责编:陈冬冬
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文章来源:《国际安全研究》 , 2017 , 35 (6)

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