会员|抖音号|抖音号|手机版
[⑨] 也有越来越多的中文文献开始关注同盟内政治和“同盟管理”。参见苏若林、唐世平：《相互制约：联盟管理的核心机制》，载《当代亚太》，2012年第3期，第6-38页；刘丰：《美国的联盟管理及其对中国的影响》，载《外交评论》，2014年第6期，第90-106页。当然，同盟内政治和同盟间政治是相互影响的。格林?施奈德的“复合型安全困境(composite security dilemma)”描述了这种互动关系，参见Glenn H. Snyder, Alliance Politic, pp.194-198。柯庆生把对这种互动关系的探讨应用到了冷战中的东亚地区，参见Thomas J. Christensen, Worse Than a Monolith: Alliance Politics and Problems of Coercive Diplomacy in Asia, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2011。
[⑩] Glenn H. Snyder, Alliance Politic, p.326.
[11] Jeremy Pressman, Warring Friends: Alliance Restraint in International Politics.
[12] David A. Baldwin, “The Power of Positive Sanctions,” World Politics, Vol.24, No.1, 1971, pp.19-38; Stephen R. Rock, Appeasement in International Politics, Lexington: University Press of Kentucky, 2000; James Davis, Threats and Promises: The Pursuit of International Influence, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2000.
[13] 以美国于2015年出台的四个文件（《国家安全战略》、《国家军事战略》、《二十一世纪海上力量合作战略》和《亚太海上安全战略》）为例，前者相对于后者都属于战略范畴，而后者相对于前者都属于策略范畴。
[14] 在这个意义上来说，本文对“同盟”的使用更接近于英文的“alignment”而非“alliance”。后者具有条约化和正式化的特征，只是前者的一种特殊形态。 关于“同盟”定义的讨论，参见Glenn H. Snyder, Alliance Politics, pp.6-16; Thomas S. Wilkins, “ ‘Alignment’, not ‘Alliance’—The Shifting Paradigm of International Security Cooperation: Toward a Conceptual Taxonomy of Alignment,” Review of International Studies, No.38, 2012, pp.53-76。
[15] 有无正式条约虽然不具有决定性作用，但是会对同盟关系产生一定的影响，参见James D. Morrow, “Alliances: Why Write Them Down?” Annual Review of Political Science, No.3, 2000, pp.63-83。
[16] 当然，美国对格鲁吉亚的安全承诺存在很大程度的不确定性，但是这种不确定性的根源不是缺乏正式条约，而是国际政治的无政府状态。
[17] 有些学者把“困难案例”称之为“最不可能发生的案例(least-likely cases)”，参见Alexander L. George, & Andrew Bennett, Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences, Cambridge: MIT Press, 2005, pp.120-123。
[18] 在冷战期间，以色列在美国政府的持续反对下，依然实现了发展核武器的目标。参见Avner Cohen, Israel and the Bomb, New York: Columbia University Press, 1998。此外，以色列分别在1981年和2007年采取单边的“预防性打击”，摧毁了伊拉克和叙利亚的核设施。
[19] John J. Mearsheimer, and Stephen M. Walt, The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy, New York: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 2007。这本书的出版在美国国内引起的广泛争议也在某种程度上说明了亲以势力的影响力。
[20] Jeffrey Goldberg, “The Point of No Return,” The Atlantic, September 2010, http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/09/the-point-of-no-return/308186/, 登录时间：2016年3月2日。
[21] Ehud Barak, Transcript of remarks on CNN’s Fareed Zakaria’s GPS, November 20, 2011, http://archives.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1111/20/fzgps.01.html, 登录时间：2016年3月2日。
[22] Jonathan Lis, “Netanyahu: World Must Stop Iran from Conducting Second Holocaust,” Haaretz, January 25, 2012; Joel Greenberg, “After Years of Sounding the Alarm, Israel’s Netanyahu Focuses World Attention on Iran,” Washington Post, February 29, 2012; Jonathan Lis, “Netanyahu: Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Possible Within Months,” Haaretz, March 9, 2012; Ari Rabinovitch, & Mark Heinrich, “Netanyahu Defends Comparison of Iran, Nazi Holocaust,” Reuters, April 18, 2012.
[23] David Ignatious, “Is Israel Preparing to Attack Iran?” Washington Post, February 2, 2012.
[24] IAEA Report by the Director General, “Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and Relevant Provisions of Security Council Resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran,” November 8, 2011.
[25] Fredrik Dahl, “Iran Ready to Start Nuclear Work in Bunker: Sources,” Reuters, December 14, 2011.
[26] Mark Landler, “U.S. Backers of Israel Pressure Obama over Policy on Iran,” New York Times, March 3, 2012; Mark Landler, “Obama Presses Netanyahu to Resist Strikes on Iran,” New York Times, March 5, 2012.
[27] Jim Zanotti, Kenneth Katzman, Jeremiah Gertler and Steven A. Hildreth, “Israel: Possible Military Strike Against Iran’s Nuclear Facilities,” Report for Congress, Congressional Research Service, September 28, 2012, pp.17-19。拥有核武器的伊朗构成对以色列的“生存性威胁”有以下两个可能的原因：一是伊朗用核武器攻击以色列；二是大量犹太人出于对伊朗核武器的恐惧而选择离开以色列，从而葬送犹太复国的梦想，参见Leslie Susser, “Spy vs. Spy,” Jerusalem Post, March 7, 2012; Leonard Weiss, “Israel’s Future and Iran’s Nuclear Program,” Middle East Policy, Vol.16, No.3, 2009, pp.79-88。
[28] 尽管奥巴马政府的官方政策是“阻止”伊朗发展核武器，但是在非官方的政策讨论中，关于“遏制”一个有核伊朗的可行性和可取性的争论一度相当激烈，参见James M. Lindsay and Ray Takeyh, “After Iran Gets the Bomb,” Foreign Affairs, Vol.89, No.2, 2010, pp.33-49; Barry R. Posen, Barry Rubin, James M. Lindsay and Ray Takeyh, “The Containment Conundrum,” Foreign Affairs, Vol.89, No.4, 2010, pp.160-168; Eric S. Edelman, Andrew F. Krepinevich and Evan Braden Montgomery, “The Dangers of a Nuclear Iran: The Limits of Containment,” Foreign Affairs, Vol.90, No.1, 2011, pp.(点击此处阅读下一页)